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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Aquia Eviction Risk: Lower , Aquia Harbour

Tract 51179010108 · Stafford County, VA · pop 6,235 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Tract 51179010108 sits in the Aquia area of Aquia Harbour, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. Cost burden runs 14% here against 41.0% across Stafford County.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 1% Stable renters 3% Owners 96%
Tract context
Occupied units1,778
Renter share3.5%
SVI overall0.14
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$156,300

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Aquia
Very Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 3 tracts In Aquia Harbour
Very Low
Within county
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#32 of 32 tracts In Stafford County
Very Low
Within state
18 th percentile
Rank, 18th percentileLowHigh
#1,798 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Aquia Harbour and the region

Centroid at 38.4821, -77.3784 · click any tract to drill in

Why Aquia scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,736 rent vs county FMR
6.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
4.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
3.7

How Aquia compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Aquia risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 0101083.6Aquia Harbourparent city4.5Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 14

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 38Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 4.82%Avg annual filing rate
  • 4.9%Peak (2015)
  • 16Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Aquia. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Aquia

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.5 points.

The voucher gap is 18.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10.

The filing record is not thin: 38 evictions over 2 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2015 at 4.9% of renter households.

In a typical year about 4.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Only 4% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 2.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51179010108

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010108?

Census tract 51179010108 in the Aquia neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51179010108?

Median gross rent is $2,736/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 14% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010108?

3.1% of residents in tract 51179010108 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,235.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010108?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 8th, minority 70th, housing 14th.
Q5

Is tract 51179010108 considered part of Aquia?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010108 fall within Aquia (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010108?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 38 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010108 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.82% of renter households, peaking at 4.9% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51179010108 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51179010108 compare to Aquia Harbour overall?

Tract 51179010108 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Aquia Harbour at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Aquia Harbour; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Aquia Harbour

Top eight tracts in Aquia Harbour ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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