Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Aquia Town Center Eviction Risk: Lower , Aquia Harbour
Tract 51179010103 · Stafford County, VA · pop 4,817 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51179010103 sits in the Aquia Town Center area of Aquia Harbour, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.8/10. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units1,830
Renter share35.7%
SVI overall0.36
Poverty rate7.4%
Median income$121,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
16
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
45
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Aquia Harbour and the region
Centroid at 38.4590, -77.3929 · click any tract to drill in
Why Aquia Town Center scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.4% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$1,875 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
4.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
3.7
How Aquia Town Center compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 36
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 21%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 69%Racial/ethnic minority
- 40%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 140Total filings over 2 yrs
- 16.31%Avg annual filing rate
- 22.2%Peak (2015)
- 53Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Aquia Town Center. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.9%Food insecurity
- 8.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.8%Transit barriers
- 7.6%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 25.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Aquia Town Center
Severe burden reaches 23%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.8/10.
At $1,875 a month, rents run 26% under what the rest of Aquia Harbour commands. roughly one in two of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Stafford County average of 41.0%.
On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 140 evictions over 2 years of observation.
SNAP participation runs 8.0% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 0.7 points below the Stafford County average of 4.5. The worst year on record was 2015, when 22.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 16.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 4.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010103
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010103?
Census tract 51179010103 in the Aquia Town Center neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010103?
Median gross rent is $1,875/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010103?
7.4% of residents in tract 51179010103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,817.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010103?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 36th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 54th, minority 69th, housing 40th.
Q5
Is tract 51179010103 considered part of Aquia Town Center?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010103 fall within Aquia Town Center (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010103?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 140 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010103 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.31% of renter households, peaking at 22.2% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51179010103 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51179010103 compare to Aquia Harbour overall?
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Aquia Harbour
Top eight tracts in Aquia Harbour ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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