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Neighborhood · Ranked #78,212 of 84,120 nationally

Aquia Town Center Eviction Risk: Lower , Aquia Harbour

Tract 51179010103 · Stafford County, VA · pop 4,817 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

For landlords sizing up Aquia Town Center in Aquia Harbour, census tract 51179010103 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.5/10. On the national scale it ranks #37,660 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 48% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,875 a month against an average household income of $121,250 a year, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 36% of occupied homes.

Risk score
1.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 19% Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units1,830
Renter share35.7%
SVI overall0.36
Poverty rate7.4%
Median income$121,250

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Aquia Town Center
Very Low
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Aquia Harbour
Very High
Within county
48 th percentile
Rank, 48th percentileLowHigh
#17 of 32 tracts In Stafford County
Moderate
Within state
25 th percentile
Rank, 25th percentileLowHigh
#1,644 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Aquia Harbour and the region

Centroid at 38.4590, -77.3929 · click any tract to drill in

Why Aquia Town Center scores 1.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
7.4% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$1,875 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
4.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
3.7

How Aquia Town Center compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Aquia Town Center risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.61.6This tracttract 010103Aquia Harbour: 3.33.3Aquia Harbourparent cityCounty: 1.81.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.03.0Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 36

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 140Total filings over 2 yrs
  • 16.31%Avg annual filing rate
  • 22.2%Peak (2015)
  • 53Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Aquia Town Center. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Aquia Town Center

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 4.7/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Aquia Harbour, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stafford County average of 5.4 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 10.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 36th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51179010103

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010103?

Census tract 51179010103 in the Aquia Town Center neighborhood scores 1.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51179010103?

Median gross rent is $1,875/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010103?

7.4% of residents in tract 51179010103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,817.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010103?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 36th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 21th, household 54th, minority 69th, housing 40th.
Q5

Is tract 51179010103 considered part of Aquia Town Center?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51179010103 fall within Aquia Town Center (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010103?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 140 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010103 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.31% of renter households, peaking at 22.2% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51179010103 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51179010103 compare to Aquia Harbour overall?

Tract 51179010103 scores 1.6/10, lower than the parent city of Aquia Harbour at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Aquia Harbour; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Aquia Harbour

Top eight tracts in Aquia Harbour ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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