Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally
Aquia Harbour Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51179010107 · Stafford County, VA · pop 3,942 · 25% of tract blocks fall in Aquia Harbour
Aquia Harbour in Stafford County is where census tract 51179010107 sits, home to 3,942 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 5.9/10. It lands near the 70th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 75% of renter households, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,785 a month while the average household earns $132,245 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 13% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
1.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units1,240
Renter share13.4%
SVI overall0.20
Poverty rate9.2%
Median income$132,245
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
22
th percentile
Low
National
6
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Aquia Harbour and the region
Centroid at 38.4551, -77.3373 · click any tract to drill in
Why Aquia Harbour scores 1.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.2% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$2,785 rent vs county FMR
7.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
4.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
3.7
How Aquia Harbour compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 20
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 19Total filings over 2 yrs
- 6.87%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.5%Peak (2015)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.7%Food insecurity
- 9.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.9%Transit barriers
- 8.7%No health insurance
- 16.5%Frequent mental distress
- 28.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Aquia Harbour
What moves this score most is supply constraint at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Aquia Harbour, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stafford County average of 5.4 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 19 eviction filings here over 2 tracked years, with about 6.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.5% of renter households in 2015.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 20th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010107
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010107?
Census tract 51179010107 in Aquia Harbour scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010107?
Median gross rent is $2,785/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 75% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010107?
9.2% of residents in tract 51179010107 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,942.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010107?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 20th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 14th, minority 62th, housing 14th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010107?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010107 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.87% of renter households, peaking at 6.5% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010107 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51179010107 compare to Aquia Harbour overall?
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Aquia Harbour
Top eight tracts in Aquia Harbour ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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