Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Aquia Harbour Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 51179010107 · Stafford County, VA · pop 3,942 · 25% of tract blocks fall in Aquia Harbour
Tract 51179010107 sits in Aquia Harbour, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.7/10. Population here is 3,942. Cost burden runs 75% here against 41.0% across Stafford County.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units1,240
Renter share13.4%
SVI overall0.20
Poverty rate9.2%
Median income$132,245
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
10
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
41
th percentile
Moderate
National
36
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Aquia Harbour and the region
Centroid at 38.4551, -77.3373 · click any tract to drill in
Why Aquia Harbour scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.2
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.2% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$2,785 rent vs county FMR
7.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
4.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aquia Harbour
3.7
How Aquia Harbour compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 20
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 19Total filings over 2 yrs
- 6.87%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.5%Peak (2015)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.5%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.7%Food insecurity
- 9.0%SNAP enrollment
- 6.9%Transit barriers
- 8.7%No health insurance
- 16.5%Frequent mental distress
- 28.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Aquia Harbour
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.3/10.
The voucher gap is 20.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 19 evictions over 2 years of observation.
Against the Stafford County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.8 points. At $2,785 a month, rents run 9% over what the rest of Aquia Harbour commands. Filings peaked in 2015 at 6.5% of renter households.
In a typical year about 6.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 35% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51179010107
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51179010107?
Census tract 51179010107 in Aquia Harbour scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51179010107?
Median gross rent is $2,785/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 75% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51179010107?
9.2% of residents in tract 51179010107 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,942.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51179010107?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 20th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 14th, minority 62th, housing 14th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51179010107?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 19 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 51179010107 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.87% of renter households, peaking at 6.5% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 51179010107 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 51179010107 compare to Aquia Harbour overall?
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Aquia Harbour
Top eight tracts in Aquia Harbour ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related