Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Jaynes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Casas Adobes
Tract 04019004506 · Pima, AZ · pop 5,827 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 04019004506 covers part of the Jaynes area of Flowing Wells, AZ, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,827. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.4/10.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units1,959
Renter share27.7%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate17.9%
Median income$39,025
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
98
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Casas Adobes and the region
Centroid at 32.3025, -111.0271 · click any tract to drill in
Why Jaynes scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Casas Adobes
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
17.9% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$998 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Casas Adobes
6.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Casas Adobes
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Casas Adobes
7.2
How Jaynes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 89
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 95%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 795Total filings over 12 yrs
- 14.90%Avg annual filing rate
- 23.7%Peak (2007)
- 60Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Jaynes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 19.5%Housing insecurity
- 13.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 27.5%Food insecurity
- 23.1%SNAP enrollment
- 14.7%Transit barriers
- 20.8%No health insurance
- 20.6%Frequent mental distress
- 42.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Jaynes
Against Pima County at 43.8%, 53% of renters here are cost-burdened. It sits 1.5 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.3/10. Food insecurity runs 27.5% against 17.8% nationally.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 795 filings here across 12 tracked years. SNAP participation runs 23.1% against 15.2% nationally. Severe burden reaches 8%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Filings peaked in 2007 at 23.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 14.9% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9/10.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004506
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004506?
Census tract 04019004506 in the Jaynes neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004506?
Median gross rent is $998/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004506?
17.9% of residents in tract 04019004506 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,827.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004506?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 89th, minority 73th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 04019004506 considered part of Jaynes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004506 fall within Jaynes (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004506?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 795 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004506 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.90% of renter households, peaking at 23.7% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019004506 struggle to pay rent?
About 19.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019004506 compare to Casas Adobes overall?
Tract 04019004506 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Casas Adobes at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Casas Adobes eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Casas Adobes
Top eight tracts in Casas Adobes ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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