Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Jaynes Eviction Risk: Lower , Casas Adobes
Tract 04019004610 ·
Pima, AZ · pop 6,993 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
04019004610 is a census tract in the Jaynes area of Casas Adobes, AZ. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,993. Cost burden runs 57% here against 43.8% across Pima County.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%Stable renters 17%Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units2,610
Renter share38.0%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate8.9%
Median income$95,594
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0th percentile
#2 of 2 tracts In Jaynes
Very Low
Within parent city
12th percentile
#16 of 18 tracts In Casas Adobes
Very Low
Within county
9th percentile
#247 of 270 tracts In Pima
Very Low
Within state
40th percentile
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Casas Adobes and the region
Centroid at 32.3149, -111.0236 · click any tract to drill in
Why Jaynes scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Casas Adobes
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.9% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,593 rent vs county FMR
6.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Casas Adobes
6.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Casas Adobes
7.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Casas Adobes
5.3
How Jaynes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 77
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
63%Socioeconomic
66%Household composition
71%Racial/ethnic minority
85%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
11.0%Housing insecurity
7.2%Utility-shutoff threat
13.4%Food insecurity
9.4%SNAP enrollment
8.2%Transit barriers
11.5%No health insurance
17.2%Frequent mental distress
31.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Jaynes
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.4/10. 18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 2.2/10. The voucher gap is 16.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. The filing record is not thin: 1,076 evictions over 12 years of observation.
Filings peaked in 2005 at 28.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 14.1% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.9/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,593, close to the Casas Adobes average. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $95,594.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004610
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004610?
Census tract 04019004610 in the Jaynes neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004610?
Median gross rent is $1,593/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004610?
8.9% of residents in tract 04019004610 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,993.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004610?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 66th, minority 71th, housing 85th.
Q5
Is tract 04019004610 considered part of Jaynes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019004610 fall within Jaynes (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004610?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,076 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004610 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.07% of renter households, peaking at 28.1% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019004610 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019004610 compare to Casas Adobes overall?
Tract 04019004610 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Casas Adobes at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Casas Adobes eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Casas Adobes
Top eight tracts in Casas Adobes ranked by composite eviction-risk score.