Elm-Erstan-Baker Eviction Risk: Moderate , Fayetteville

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 9.6/10. 96% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

The poverty rate is 38%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1/10. Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $30,842, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Food insecurity runs 29.7% against 17.8% nationally.

At $842 a month, rents run 21% under what the rest of Fayetteville commands. It sits 1.1 points above the Washington County average of 3.7. Housing insecurity runs 21.5% against 14.2% nationally.

Nationally it ranks #35,669 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 7.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.