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Census Tract · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally

Lincoln Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 05143011002 · Washington County, AR · pop 5,745 · 17% of tract blocks fall in Lincoln

Census tract 05143011002 covers part of Lincoln, AR, and scores 4.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,745. The main counterweight is state political climate at 1.5/10.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 26% Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units2,118
Renter share41.6%
SVI overall0.54
Poverty rate19.6%
Median income$62,283

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Lincoln
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 54 tracts In Washington County
Very High
Within state
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#92 of 823 tracts In Arkansas
High
National
59 th percentile
Rank, 59th percentileLowHigh
#34,278 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lincoln and the region

Centroid at 35.9188, -94.4226 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lincoln scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lincoln
5.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.8
State political climate
Arkansas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
19.6% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$872 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lincoln
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lincoln
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lincoln
6.7

How Lincoln compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lincoln risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.9This tracttract 0110024.0Lincolnparent city3.7Countyavg tract in county3.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 54

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lincoln

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.1/10. At $872 a month, rents run 21% under what the rest of Lincoln commands.

Severe burden reaches 13%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against the Washington County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.

The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Nationally it ranks #34,278 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 5.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $62,283, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the AR average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 38% of renters. 42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 05143011002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 05143011002?

Census tract 05143011002 in Lincoln scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 05143011002?

Median gross rent is $872/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 05143011002?

19.6% of residents in tract 05143011002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,745.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 05143011002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 54th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 58th, household 55th, minority 39th, housing 47th.
Q5

What share of households in tract 05143011002 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 05143011002 compare to Lincoln overall?

Tract 05143011002 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Lincoln at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lincoln; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lincoln

Top eight tracts in Lincoln ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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