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Census Tract · Ranked #34,332 of 84,120 nationally

San Rafael Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06041109002 · Marin, CA · pop 4,345 · 90% of tract blocks fall in San Rafael

How risky is San Rafael for landlords? Census tract 06041109002 scores 5.5/10, the Moderate tier. It lands near the 59th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,811 monthly, set against $150,431 in average yearly household income, roughly 14% of income at the averages. Renters make up 34% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 18% Owners 66%
Tract context
Occupied units1,954
Renter share33.6%
SVI overall0.24
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$150,431

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
15 th percentile
Rank, 15th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 14 tracts In San Rafael
Very Low
Within county
62 th percentile
Rank, 62nd percentileLowHigh
#24 of 62 tracts In Marin
Elevated
Within state
29 th percentile
Rank, 29th percentileLowHigh
#6,499 of 9,109 tracts In California
Low
National
59 th percentile
Rank, 59th percentileLowHigh
#34,332 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across San Rafael and the region

Centroid at 37.9835, -122.5481 · click any tract to drill in

Why San Rafael scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from San Rafael
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$1,811 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Rafael
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Rafael
9.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Rafael
6.9

How San Rafael compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
San Rafael risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.44.4This tracttract 109002San Rafael: 8.38.3San Rafaelparent cityCounty: 4.24.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 5.65.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 24

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in San Rafael

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from San Rafael, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Marin County average of 5.4 and below the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 24th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041109002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041109002?

Census tract 06041109002 in San Rafael scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06041109002?

Median gross rent is $1,811/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041109002?

4.6% of residents in tract 06041109002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,345.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041109002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 24th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 37th, minority 36th, housing 47th.
Q5

What share of households in tract 06041109002 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6

How does tract 06041109002 compare to San Rafael overall?

Tract 06041109002 scores 4.4/10, lower than the parent city of San Rafael at 8.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Rafael; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Rafael

Top eight tracts in San Rafael ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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