Neighborhood · Ranked #2,210 of 84,120 nationally

Otay Eviction Risk: High , Chula Vista

Tract 06073010010 · San Diego, CA · pop 4,705 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Census tract 06073010010 covers part of the Otay area of San Diego, CA, and scores 9.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,705 residents. Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

9.8

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 17% Owners 59%

Tract context

Occupied units1,596

Renter share40.4%

SVI overall0.95

Poverty rate12.7%

Median income$65,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Chula Vista and the region

Centroid at 32.5784, -117.0637 · click any tract to drill in

Why Otay scores 9.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Chula Vista

7.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

12.7% poverty · this tract

3.2

Supply constraint

$1,751 rent vs county FMR

1.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Chula Vista

8.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Chula Vista

7.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Chula Vista

7.5

How Otay compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

88%Socioeconomic
93%Household composition
90%Racial/ethnic minority
88%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Otay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.4%Housing insecurity
8.6%Utility-shutoff threat
24.9%Food insecurity
20.5%SNAP enrollment
11.5%Transit barriers
18.1%No health insurance
15.9%Frequent mental distress
34.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Otay

The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1.1/10. Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.2 points. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $65,000, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8/10. At $1,751 a month, rents run 24% under what the rest of San Diego commands. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

Cost burden runs 59% here against 52.5% across San Diego County. Food insecurity runs 24.9% against 17.8% nationally. On the national scale it lands near the 97th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 9.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.3 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

40% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073010010

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073010010?

Census tract 06073010010 in the Otay neighborhood scores 9.8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073010010?

Median gross rent is $1,751/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073010010?

12.7% of residents in tract 06073010010 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,705.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073010010?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 93th, minority 90th, housing 88th.

Is tract 06073010010 considered part of Otay?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073010010 fall within Otay (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073010010 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073010010 compare to Chula Vista overall?

Tract 06073010010 scores 9.8/10, higher than the parent city of Chula Vista at 7.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chula Vista eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chula Vista

Top eight tracts in Chula Vista ranked by composite eviction-risk score.