7 census tracts · pop 33,303 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 8.7/10
· range 7.9–9.8
Otay is a 7-tract neighborhood of Chula Vista, CA and houses 33,303 people. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 8.7/10, High tier. 56% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, dramatically above the Chula Vista rate of 35.4%.
The severe-burden share is 29%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 1.9/10.
Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 7.9 to 9.8, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 8.1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 7.6/10.
CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 21.8% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,957, 12% below the Chula Vista average of $2,229.
18.0% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. Among the 16 mapped neighborhoods of Chula Vista, it ranks #5 by risk, the upper third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Sunny Vista and Boal.
Social vulnerability runs high at 8.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $79,291.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.9 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
8.7
High
7 tracts · population-weighted
Otay vs Chula VistaHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority92%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport77%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Otay
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
22.1%Housing insecurity
9.7%Utility shutoff threat
26.6%Food insecurity
22.9%SNAP enrollment
18.2%No health insurance
34.3%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Otay
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Otay?
Otay scores 8.7/10 (High tier) across 7 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Otay compare to Chula Vista overall?
Otay scores 0.9 points higher than Chula Vista overall (7.8/10). Renters spend 56% of income on rent vs 35% citywide. Average rent: $1,957 vs $2,229.
Q3
What is the average rent in Otay?
Average gross rent in Otay is $1,957/month (pop-weighted across 7 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Otay residents are renters?
36% of Otay households are renter-occupied (vs 40% in Chula Vista). The neighborhood has 33,303 residents.
Q5
Is Otay a high social-vulnerability area?
Otay sits in the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Otay have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Otay is census tract 06073010010 (score 9.8/10). Across the 7 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 7.9 to 9.8, a spread of 1.9 points.
Q7
How safe is Otay for landlords?
Otay carries a high-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (8.7/10). Pop-weighted across 7 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Chula Vista as a whole (7.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Otay?
Otay has 32,171 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (77.5%), White (non-Hispanic) (9.4%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (7.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
