Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #4,888 of 84,120 nationally
Otay Eviction Risk: High , Chula Vista
Tract 06073013204 · San Diego, CA · pop 4,452 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
06073013204 is a census tract in the Otay area of Chula Vista, CA. It scores 8.7/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,452. 26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
8.7
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units1,284
Renter share36.9%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate9.4%
Median income$61,852
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
76
th percentile
High
Within county
75
th percentile
High
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chula Vista and the region
Centroid at 32.5983, -117.0637 · click any tract to drill in
Why Otay scores 8.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chula Vista
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
9.4% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,809 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chula Vista
8.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chula Vista
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chula Vista
6.3
How Otay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 96
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 92%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 93%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Otay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 23.1%Housing insecurity
- 9.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 27.0%Food insecurity
- 22.1%SNAP enrollment
- 12.8%Transit barriers
- 19.3%No health insurance
- 17.2%Frequent mental distress
- 34.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Otay
The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1.3/10. Set annual rent against average income of $61,852 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.1/10.
Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.1/10. Average gross rent is $1,809, 19% below the Chula Vista average. Cost burden runs 58% here against 52.5% across San Diego County.
It sits 1.1 points above the San Diego County average of 7.6. Food insecurity runs 27.0% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 23.1% against 14.2% nationally.
That is riskier than roughly 94% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 06073013204
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073013204?
Census tract 06073013204 in the Otay neighborhood scores 8.7/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06073013204?
Median gross rent is $1,809/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06073013204?
9.4% of residents in tract 06073013204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,452.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06073013204?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 89th, minority 93th, housing 90th.
Q5
Is tract 06073013204 considered part of Otay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073013204 fall within Otay (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06073013204 struggle to pay rent?
About 23.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06073013204 compare to Chula Vista overall?
Tract 06073013204 scores 8.7/10, higher than the parent city of Chula Vista at 7.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chula Vista eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chula Vista
Top eight tracts in Chula Vista ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · CA
Castle Park
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Sunny Vista
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Otay
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Sunny Vista
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Boal
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Otay
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Harbor Side
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Sunny Vista
9
/ 10 · Very High
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