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Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Little Baghdad Eviction Risk: High , El Cajon

Tract 06073016301 · San Diego, CA · pop 5,128 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Tract 06073016301 sits in the Little Baghdad area of El Cajon, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 9.3/10. Population here is 5,128. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.6/10.

Risk score
9.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 40% Stable renters 23% Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units1,751
Renter share62.8%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate22.9%
Median income$64,446

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 7 tracts In Little Baghdad
Very Low
Within parent city
48 th percentile
Rank, 48th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 22 tracts In El Cajon
Moderate
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#100 of 736 tracts In San Diego
High
Within state
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#1,347 of 9,109 tracts In California
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across El Cajon and the region

Centroid at 32.8031, -116.9565 · click any tract to drill in

Why Little Baghdad scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from El Cajon
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
22.9% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$1,615 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Cajon
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Cajon
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Cajon
8.5

How Little Baghdad compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Little Baghdad risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 9.39.3This tracttract 016301El Cajon: 7.97.9El Cajonparent cityCounty: 7.67.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 7.57.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Little Baghdad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Little Baghdad

31% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.1/10.

around two-thirds of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the San Diego County average of 52.5%. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points.

SNAP participation runs 28.5% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 23%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Housing insecurity runs 22.1% against 14.2% nationally.

Average gross rent is $1,615, 13% below the El Cajon average. That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073016301

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073016301?

Census tract 06073016301 in the Little Baghdad neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06073016301?

Median gross rent is $1,615/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073016301?

22.9% of residents in tract 06073016301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,128.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073016301?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 69th, minority 70th, housing 68th.
Q5

Is tract 06073016301 considered part of Little Baghdad?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073016301 fall within Little Baghdad (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06073016301 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06073016301 compare to El Cajon overall?

Tract 06073016301 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of El Cajon at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Cajon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Cajon

Top eight tracts in El Cajon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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