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Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Little Baghdad Eviction Risk: High , El Cajon

Tract 06073015705 · San Diego, CA · pop 3,882 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

With a score of 9.3/10, tract 06073015705 in the Little Baghdad area of El Cajon, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.6/10.

Risk score
9.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 51% Stable renters 38% Owners 11%
Tract context
Occupied units1,221
Renter share88.3%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate20.7%
Median income$60,256

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 7 tracts In Little Baghdad
Elevated
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 22 tracts In El Cajon
Very High
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#94 of 736 tracts In San Diego
High
Within state
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#1,347 of 9,109 tracts In California
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across El Cajon and the region

Centroid at 32.7913, -116.9509 · click any tract to drill in

Why Little Baghdad scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from El Cajon
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
20.7% poverty · this tract
5.2
Supply constraint
$1,835 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Cajon
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Cajon
9.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Cajon
8.5

How Little Baghdad compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Little Baghdad risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 9.39.3This tracttract 015705El Cajon: 7.97.9El Cajonparent cityCounty: 7.67.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 7.57.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 97

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Little Baghdad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Little Baghdad

The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. This is renter territory: 88% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.1/10.

Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $60,256, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.4/10. Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points.

SNAP participation runs 28.4% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Food insecurity runs 26.7% against 17.8% nationally.

Against San Diego County at 52.5%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.8/10.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073015705

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073015705?

Census tract 06073015705 in the Little Baghdad neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06073015705?

Median gross rent is $1,835/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073015705?

20.7% of residents in tract 06073015705 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,882.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073015705?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 86th, minority 58th, housing 100th.
Q5

Is tract 06073015705 considered part of Little Baghdad?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073015705 fall within Little Baghdad (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06073015705 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06073015705 compare to El Cajon overall?

Tract 06073015705 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of El Cajon at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Cajon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Cajon

Top eight tracts in El Cajon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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