Neighborhood · Ranked #3,427 of 84,120 nationally

Little Baghdad Eviction Risk: Elevated , El Cajon

Tract 06073015705 · San Diego, CA · pop 3,882 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

The Elevated-tier score of 6.3/10 for census tract 06073015705 reflects conditions in Little Baghdad in El Cajon, California. That is riskier than about 83% of US census tracts.

About 57% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,835 a month against an average household income of $60,256 a year, roughly 37% of income at the averages. About 88% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

7.4

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 51% Stable renters 38% Owners 11%

Tract context

Occupied units1,221

Renter share88.3%

SVI overall0.97

Poverty rate20.7%

Median income$60,256

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across El Cajon and the region

Centroid at 32.7913, -116.9509 · click any tract to drill in

Why Little Baghdad scores 7.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from El Cajon

6.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

20.7% poverty · this tract

5.2

Supply constraint

$1,835 rent vs county FMR

1.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from El Cajon

9.1

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from El Cajon

9.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from El Cajon

8.5

How Little Baghdad compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 97

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

90%Socioeconomic
86%Household composition
58%Racial/ethnic minority
100%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Little Baghdad. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

21.0%Housing insecurity
10.7%Utility-shutoff threat
26.7%Food insecurity
28.4%SNAP enrollment
13.6%Transit barriers
13.4%No health insurance
21.7%Frequent mental distress
37.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Little Baghdad

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from El Cajon, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the San Diego County average of 5.8 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 21.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073015705

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073015705?

Census tract 06073015705 in the Little Baghdad neighborhood scores 7.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073015705?

Median gross rent is $1,835/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073015705?

20.7% of residents in tract 06073015705 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,882.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073015705?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 86th, minority 58th, housing 100th.

Is tract 06073015705 considered part of Little Baghdad?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073015705 fall within Little Baghdad (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073015705 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073015705 compare to El Cajon overall?

Tract 06073015705 scores 7.4/10, lower than the parent city of El Cajon at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Cajon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Cajon

Top eight tracts in El Cajon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.