Neighborhood · Ranked #5,730 of 84,120 nationally

Rancho Carrillo Eviction Risk: High , San Marcos

Tract 06073020019 · San Diego, CA · pop 7,405 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 8.4/10, tract 06073020019 in the Rancho Carrillo area of San Marcos, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 38%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

8.4

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 8% Owners 78%

Tract context

Occupied units2,945

Renter share22.2%

SVI overall0.73

Poverty rate16.8%

Median income$74,026

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Marcos and the region

Centroid at 33.1320, -117.2176 · click any tract to drill in

Why Rancho Carrillo scores 8.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Marcos

6.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

16.8% poverty · this tract

4.2

Supply constraint

$1,747 rent vs county FMR

1.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Marcos

8.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.7

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Marcos

7.7

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Marcos

6.9

How Rancho Carrillo compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 73

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

63%Socioeconomic
56%Household composition
69%Racial/ethnic minority
80%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.8%Housing insecurity
6.0%Utility-shutoff threat
15.0%Food insecurity
15.0%SNAP enrollment
8.0%Transit barriers
9.0%No health insurance
15.2%Frequent mental distress
33.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Rancho Carrillo

The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1.1/10. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.

Cost burden runs 62% here against 52.5% across San Diego County. At $1,747 a month, rents run 26% under what the rest of San Marcos commands. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.7/10.

Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points. That is riskier than roughly 93% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 22% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 7.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $74,026.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073020019

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073020019?

Census tract 06073020019 in the Rancho Carrillo neighborhood scores 8.4/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073020019?

Median gross rent is $1,747/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073020019?

16.8% of residents in tract 06073020019 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,405.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073020019?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 56th, minority 69th, housing 80th.

Is tract 06073020019 considered part of Rancho Carrillo?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073020019 fall within Rancho Carrillo (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073020019 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073020019 compare to San Marcos overall?

Tract 06073020019 scores 8.4/10, higher than the parent city of San Marcos at 7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Marcos; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Marcos

Top eight tracts in San Marcos ranked by composite eviction-risk score.