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Neighborhood · Ranked #1,107 of 84,120 nationally

Hayes Valley Eviction Risk: High , San Francisco

Tract 06075016102 · San Francisco, CA · pop 2,618 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 06075016102 (the Hayes Valley area of San Francisco, California) comes in at 7.8/10, the Elevated tier. That ranks it in the top 1% of US census tracts for landlord eviction risk, among the very hardest places in the country to operate.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 43% of renter households, a severe level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is about $1,147 a month. About 98% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
8.5
High
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 56% Owners 2%
Tract context
Occupied units1,212
Renter share98.1%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate35.4%

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 5 tracts In Hayes Valley
Very High
Within parent city
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 242 tracts In San Francisco
Very High
Within county
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 242 tracts In San Francisco
Very High
Within state
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#420 of 9,109 tracts In California
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across San Francisco and the region

Centroid at 37.7802, -122.4270 · click any tract to drill in

Why Hayes Valley scores 8.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from San Francisco
9.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.6
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
35.4% poverty · this tract
8.9
Supply constraint
$1,147 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Francisco
10.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
10.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Francisco
10.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Francisco
9.5

How Hayes Valley compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Hayes Valley risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 8.58.5This tracttract 016102San Francisco: 9.79.7San Franciscoparent cityCounty: 5.65.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 5.65.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 97

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Hayes Valley. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Hayes Valley

What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from San Francisco eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the San Francisco County average of 7.0 and above the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 23.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 14.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is Black and Asian and ranks around the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06075016102

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06075016102?

Census tract 06075016102 in the Hayes Valley neighborhood scores 8.5/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06075016102?

Median gross rent is $1,147/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06075016102?

35.4% of residents in tract 06075016102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,618.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06075016102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 86th, minority 90th, housing 93th.
Q5

Is tract 06075016102 considered part of Hayes Valley?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06075016102 fall within Hayes Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06075016102 struggle to pay rent?

About 23.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06075016102 compare to San Francisco overall?

Tract 06075016102 scores 8.5/10, lower than the parent city of San Francisco at 9.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Francisco eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 06075016102 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 76% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Francisco

Top eight tracts in San Francisco ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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