Neighborhood · Ranked #1 of 84,120 nationally

Hayes Valley Eviction Risk: High , San Francisco

Tract 06075016802 · San Francisco, CA · pop 3,807 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

06075016802 is a census tract in the Hayes Valley area of San Francisco, CA. It scores 9.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,807 residents. The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 10/10.

Risk score

9.9

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 55% Owners 16%

Tract context

Occupied units1,924

Renter share83.7%

SVI overall0.34

Poverty rate14.4%

Median income$109,107

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Francisco and the region

Centroid at 37.7735, -122.4249 · click any tract to drill in

Why Hayes Valley scores 9.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Francisco

9.8

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.6

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

14.4% poverty · this tract

3.6

Supply constraint

$2,357 rent vs county FMR

2.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Francisco

10.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

10.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Francisco

10.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Francisco

9.5

How Hayes Valley compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 34

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

24%Socioeconomic
3%Household composition
66%Racial/ethnic minority
89%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
67%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Hayes Valley. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.4%Housing insecurity
6.5%Utility-shutoff threat
12.8%Food insecurity
11.4%SNAP enrollment
7.8%Transit barriers
6.2%No health insurance
16.9%Frequent mental distress
23.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Hayes Valley

On the high side, eviction-process difficulty reads 10/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 10/10.

84% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for San Francisco. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. Nationally it ranks #1 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 4.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.4 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

34% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the San Francisco County average of 9.5 closely.

Average gross rent is $2,357, close to the San Francisco average. Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $109,107.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06075016802

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06075016802?

Census tract 06075016802 in the Hayes Valley neighborhood scores 9.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06075016802?

Median gross rent is $2,357/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06075016802?

14.4% of residents in tract 06075016802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,807.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06075016802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 3th, minority 66th, housing 89th.

Is tract 06075016802 considered part of Hayes Valley?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06075016802 fall within Hayes Valley (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06075016802 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06075016802 compare to San Francisco overall?

Tract 06075016802 scores 9.9/10, right in line with the parent city of San Francisco at 9.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Francisco eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 06075016802 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 67% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Francisco

Top eight tracts in San Francisco ranked by composite eviction-risk score.