Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Outer Mission Eviction Risk: High , San Francisco

Tract 06075031202 · San Francisco, CA · pop 2,804 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

06075031202 is a census tract in the Outer Mission area of San Francisco, CA. It scores 9.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,804 residents. The severe-burden share is 36%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

9.3

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 18% Owners 69%

Tract context

Occupied units818

Renter share31.3%

SVI overall0.58

Poverty rate8.6%

Median income$156,250

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Francisco and the region

Centroid at 37.7193, -122.4524 · click any tract to drill in

Why Outer Mission scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Francisco

9.8

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.6

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

8.6% poverty · this tract

2.1

Supply constraint

$2,667 rent vs county FMR

3.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Francisco

10.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

10.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Francisco

10.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Francisco

9.5

How Outer Mission compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 58

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

49%Socioeconomic
26%Household composition
94%Racial/ethnic minority
68%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
29%Grade C
70%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Outer Mission. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.2%Housing insecurity
5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
16.1%Food insecurity
11.4%SNAP enrollment
7.9%Transit barriers
7.7%No health insurance
13.9%Frequent mental distress
25.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Outer Mission

What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 10/10. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 10/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 10/10. Cost burden runs 41% here against 37.3% across San Francisco County. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.2/10.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

It tracks the San Francisco County average of 9.5 closely. Average gross rent is $2,667, close to the San Francisco average.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06075031202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06075031202?

Census tract 06075031202 in the Outer Mission neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06075031202?

Median gross rent is $2,667/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06075031202?

8.6% of residents in tract 06075031202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,804.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06075031202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 49th, household 26th, minority 94th, housing 68th.

Is tract 06075031202 considered part of Outer Mission?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06075031202 fall within Outer Mission (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06075031202 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06075031202 compare to San Francisco overall?

Tract 06075031202 scores 9.3/10, lower than the parent city of San Francisco at 9.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Francisco eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 06075031202 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 70% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Francisco

Top eight tracts in San Francisco ranked by composite eviction-risk score.