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Neighborhood · Ranked #5,413 of 84,120 nationally

Lincoln Manor Association Eviction Risk: High , Santa Rosa

Tract 06097153003 · Sonoma, CA · pop 5,449 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Tract 06097153003 sits in the Lincoln Manor Association area of Santa Rosa eviction risk, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 8.5/10. 64% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Sonoma County average of 49.9%.

Risk score
8.5
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30% Stable renters 17% Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units2,050
Renter share46.7%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate12.4%
Median income$75,605

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#5 of 8 tracts In Lincoln Manor Association
Moderate
Within parent city
82 th percentile
Rank, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#9 of 45 tracts In Santa Rosa
High
Within county
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#13 of 121 tracts In Sonoma
Very High
Within state
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#2,547 of 9,109 tracts In California
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Santa Rosa and the region

Centroid at 38.4340, -122.7384 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lincoln Manor Association scores 8.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Santa Rosa
7.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.6
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
12.4% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$2,209 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Santa Rosa
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Santa Rosa
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Santa Rosa
6.1

How Lincoln Manor Association compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lincoln Manor Association risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 8.58.5This tracttract 153003Santa Rosa: 7.37.3Santa Rosaparent cityCounty: 6.96.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 7.57.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 91

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lincoln Manor Association. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lincoln Manor Association

The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10.

Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $75,605, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running cool, court filing pressure reads 1.9/10. Against the Sonoma County average of 6.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.8/10. Nationally it ranks #5,413 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Average gross rent is $2,209, close to the Santa Rosa average. 47% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06097153003

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06097153003?

Census tract 06097153003 in the Lincoln Manor Association neighborhood scores 8.5/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06097153003?

Median gross rent is $2,209/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06097153003?

12.4% of residents in tract 06097153003 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,449.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06097153003?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 92th, minority 70th, housing 97th.
Q5

Is tract 06097153003 considered part of Lincoln Manor Association?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06097153003 fall within Lincoln Manor Association (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06097153003 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06097153003 compare to Santa Rosa overall?

Tract 06097153003 scores 8.5/10, higher than the parent city of Santa Rosa at 7.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Santa Rosa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Santa Rosa

Top eight tracts in Santa Rosa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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