Neighborhood · Ranked #4,888 of 84,120 nationally

Lincoln Manor Association Eviction Risk: High , Santa Rosa

Tract 06097153103 · Sonoma, CA · pop 4,834 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

Tract 06097153103 sits in the Lincoln Manor Association area of Santa Rosa eviction risk, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 8.7/10. Population here is 4,834. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10.

Risk score

8.7

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 20% Owners 48%

Tract context

Occupied units1,530

Renter share52.0%

SVI overall0.78

Poverty rate18.1%

Median income$73,393

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Santa Rosa and the region

Centroid at 38.4198, -122.7342 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lincoln Manor Association scores 8.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Santa Rosa

7.8

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.6

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

18.1% poverty · this tract

4.5

Supply constraint

$1,573 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Santa Rosa

7.1

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.6

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Santa Rosa

8.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Santa Rosa

6.1

How Lincoln Manor Association compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 78

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

78%Socioeconomic
70%Household composition
80%Racial/ethnic minority
60%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lincoln Manor Association. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.8%Housing insecurity
10.2%Utility-shutoff threat
24.9%Food insecurity
21.6%SNAP enrollment
12.5%Transit barriers
16.5%No health insurance
19.2%Frequent mental distress
34.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lincoln Manor Association

The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 61% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Sonoma County average of 49.9%.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.6/10. It sits 1.8 points above the Sonoma County average of 6.9. Average gross rent is $1,573, 27% below the Santa Rosa average.

Well under the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 1.9/10. The poverty rate is 18%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Food insecurity runs 24.9% against 17.8% nationally. Nationally it ranks #4,888 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $73,393.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06097153103

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06097153103?

Census tract 06097153103 in the Lincoln Manor Association neighborhood scores 8.7/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06097153103?

Median gross rent is $1,573/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06097153103?

18.1% of residents in tract 06097153103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,834.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06097153103?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 70th, minority 80th, housing 60th.

Is tract 06097153103 considered part of Lincoln Manor Association?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06097153103 fall within Lincoln Manor Association (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06097153103 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06097153103 compare to Santa Rosa overall?

Tract 06097153103 scores 8.7/10, higher than the parent city of Santa Rosa at 7.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Santa Rosa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Santa Rosa

Top eight tracts in Santa Rosa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.