Lincoln Manor Association Eviction Risk: High , Santa Rosa
Tract 06097153002 ·
Sonoma, CA · pop 7,218 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 8.7/10, tract 06097153002 in the Lincoln Manor Association area of Santa Rosa, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 7,218 residents. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10.
Risk score
8.7
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%Stable renters 17%Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units2,132
Renter share37.1%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate20.4%
Median income$86,553
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
86th percentile
#2 of 8 tracts In Lincoln Manor Association
High
Within parent city
96th percentile
#3 of 45 tracts In Santa Rosa
Very High
Within county
96th percentile
#6 of 121 tracts In Sonoma
Very High
Within state
75th percentile
#2,258 of 9,109 tracts In California
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Santa Rosa and the region
Centroid at 38.4411, -122.7328 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lincoln Manor Association scores 8.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Santa Rosa
7.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.6
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
20.4% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$1,932 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Santa Rosa
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Santa Rosa
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Santa Rosa
6.1
How Lincoln Manor Association compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
95%Socioeconomic
39%Household composition
75%Racial/ethnic minority
84%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lincoln Manor Association. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
20.8%Housing insecurity
10.5%Utility-shutoff threat
25.3%Food insecurity
23.1%SNAP enrollment
12.9%Transit barriers
16.9%No health insurance
19.6%Frequent mental distress
35.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lincoln Manor Association
Against the Sonoma County average of 6.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.8 points. On the softer side, court filing pressure reads 1.9/10.
Severe burden reaches 18%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.1/10. The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
SNAP participation runs 23.1% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 25.3% against 17.8% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,932, 10% below the Santa Rosa average.
Nationally it ranks #4,888 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.9/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. 54% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $86,553.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 06097153002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06097153002?
Census tract 06097153002 in the Lincoln Manor Association neighborhood scores 8.7/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06097153002?
Median gross rent is $1,932/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06097153002?
20.4% of residents in tract 06097153002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,218.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06097153002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 39th, minority 75th, housing 84th.
Q5
Is tract 06097153002 considered part of Lincoln Manor Association?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06097153002 fall within Lincoln Manor Association (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06097153002 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06097153002 compare to Santa Rosa overall?
Tract 06097153002 scores 8.7/10, higher than the parent city of Santa Rosa at 7.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Santa Rosa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Santa Rosa
Top eight tracts in Santa Rosa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.