Ceres Eviction Risk: Elevated

Against Stanislaus County at 47.5%, 81% of renters here are cost-burdened. The voucher gap is 42.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The dominant input is supply constraint at 9.3/10.

At $2,232 a month, rents run 36% over what the rest of Ceres commands. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.6/10.

Food insecurity runs 29.7% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 22.4% against 14.2% nationally.

That is riskier than roughly 83% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 17% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely.

Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $86,544.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.