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Neighborhood · Ranked #14,308 of 84,120 nationally

Shackelford Eviction Risk: Elevated , Modesto

Tract 06099002401 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 4,106 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 6.7/10, tract 06099002401 in the Shackelford area of Modesto, CA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,106 residents. SNAP participation runs 33.2% against 15.2% nationally.

Risk score
6.7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 15% Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units925
Renter share29.6%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate11.0%
Median income$72,039

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 7 tracts In Shackelford
Very Low
Within parent city
55 th percentile
Rank, 55th percentileLowHigh
#21 of 45 tracts In Modesto
Moderate
Within county
56 th percentile
Rank, 56th percentileLowHigh
#50 of 112 tracts In Stanislaus
Elevated
Within state
37 th percentile
Rank, 37th percentileLowHigh
#5,752 of 9,109 tracts In California
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.5973, -121.0019 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shackelford scores 6.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Modesto
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
11.0% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,913 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Modesto
7.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Modesto
8.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Modesto
7.0

How Shackelford compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Shackelford risk score vs. parent city / county / state6.7This tracttract 0024016.7Modestoparent city6.5Countyavg tract in county7.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 75

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shackelford. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shackelford

What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10. Severe burden reaches 17%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. The voucher gap is 22.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Running cool, economic stress reads 2.7/10. Average gross rent is $1,913, 13% above the Modesto average. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Nationally it ranks #14,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

about half of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely. Annual rent works out to 32% of average household income of $72,039.

30% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099002401

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002401?

Census tract 06099002401 in the Shackelford neighborhood scores 6.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06099002401?

Median gross rent is $1,913/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002401?

11.0% of residents in tract 06099002401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,106.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002401?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 68th, minority 92th, housing 27th.
Q5

Is tract 06099002401 considered part of Shackelford?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06099002401 fall within Shackelford (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06099002401 struggle to pay rent?

About 29.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06099002401 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099002401 scores 6.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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