Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 9.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 52nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.