Census Tract · Ranked #2,005 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: High

Tract 06099002100 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 3,427 · 51% of tract blocks fall in Modesto

Tract 06099002100 covers Modesto in Stanislaus County in California. Home to 3,427 residents, it scores 6.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 89th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 58% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 35% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,102 a month while the average household earns $38,315 a year, roughly 35% of income at the averages. Renters make up 64% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 27% Owners 36%

Tract context

Occupied units848

Renter share64.4%

SVI overall0.98

Poverty rate32.5%

Median income$38,315

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6276, -120.9589 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

32.5% poverty · this tract

8.1

Supply constraint

$1,102 rent vs county FMR

2.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 98

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

96%Socioeconomic
96%Household composition
83%Racial/ethnic minority
92%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

32.8%Housing insecurity
19.3%Utility-shutoff threat
43.5%Food insecurity
46.2%SNAP enrollment
22.1%Transit barriers
25.2%No health insurance
23.8%Frequent mental distress
49.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and above the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 32.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 19.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 98th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099002100

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002100?

Census tract 06099002100 in Modesto scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099002100?

Median gross rent is $1,102/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002100?

32.5% of residents in tract 06099002100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,427.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 96th, minority 83th, housing 92th.

What share of households in tract 06099002100 struggle to pay rent?

About 32.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099002100 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099002100 scores 8/10, right in line with the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.