Modesto Eviction Risk: High

SNAP participation runs 49.5% against 15.2% nationally. At $1,132 a month, rents run 33% under what the rest of Modesto commands.

Cost burden runs 59% here against 47.5% across Stanislaus County. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

69% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. It sits 1.6 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. The poverty rate is 24%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.2/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 20.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Social vulnerability reads 9.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $43,452.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.