Census Tract · Ranked #7,382 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: High

Tract 06099001601 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 4,678 · 60% of tract blocks fall in Modesto

With a score of 8.1/10, tract 06099001601 in Modesto, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,678. Food insecurity runs 35.5% against 17.8% nationally.

Risk score

8.1

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 29% Owners 51%

Tract context

Occupied units1,172

Renter share49.5%

SVI overall0.98

Poverty rate20.7%

Median income$54,914

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6296, -121.0160 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 8.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

20.7% poverty · this tract

5.2

Supply constraint

$1,222 rent vs county FMR

2.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 98

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

90%Socioeconomic
97%Household composition
91%Racial/ethnic minority
96%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

27.3%Housing insecurity
13.7%Utility-shutoff threat
35.5%Food insecurity
32.5%SNAP enrollment
17.2%Transit barriers
23.8%No health insurance
20.7%Frequent mental distress
42.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

SNAP participation runs 32.5% against 15.2% nationally. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

The severe-burden share is 21%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. At $1,222 a month, rents run 28% under what the rest of Modesto commands.

Against the Stanislaus County average of 6.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. 41% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Stanislaus County average of 47.5%.

The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.8/10.

Nationally it ranks #7,382 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099001601

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099001601?

Census tract 06099001601 in Modesto scores 8.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099001601?

Median gross rent is $1,222/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099001601?

20.7% of residents in tract 06099001601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,678.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099001601?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 97th, minority 91th, housing 96th.

What share of households in tract 06099001601 struggle to pay rent?

About 27.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099001601 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099001601 scores 8.1/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.