Modesto Eviction Risk: High

71% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Stanislaus County average of 47.5%. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $57,615, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

It sits 1.6 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. The poverty rate is 23%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Food insecurity runs 27.9% against 17.8% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 22.3% against 14.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 7/10.

That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.