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Census Tract · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally

Bayshore Gardens Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 12081001002 · Manatee, FL · pop 2,734 · 8% of tract blocks fall in Bayshore Gardens

Census tract 12081001002 covers part of Bayshore Gardens, FL, and scores 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,734. The severe-burden share is 74%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 14% Stable renters 3% Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units1,338
Renter share17.0%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate18.7%
Median income$43,205

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#3 of 8 tracts In Bayshore Gardens
Elevated
Within county
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#9 of 93 tracts In Manatee
Very High
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#431 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Very High
National
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#23,808 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region

Centroid at 27.4207, -82.5821 · click any tract to drill in

Why Bayshore Gardens scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
18.7% poverty · this tract
4.7
Supply constraint
$1,392 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
8.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.8

How Bayshore Gardens compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Bayshore Gardens risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.5This tracttract 0010024.1Bayshore Gardensparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 81

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Bayshore Gardens

Cost burden runs 84% here against 53.5% across Manatee County. Annualized rent equals 39% of average household income of $43,205, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty at 1.3/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.6/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

Disability prevalence runs 44.7% against 31.5% nationally. Against the Manatee County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points.

The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. That is riskier than roughly 72% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 17% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 8.3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 12081001002

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081001002?

Census tract 12081001002 in Bayshore Gardens scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12081001002?

Median gross rent is $1,392/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 84% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12081001002?

18.7% of residents in tract 12081001002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,734.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12081001002?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 69th, minority 37th, housing 73th.
Q5

How does tract 12081001002 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?

Tract 12081001002 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bayshore Gardens

Top eight tracts in Bayshore Gardens ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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