Within neighborhood
71
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens
Tract 12081000314 · Manatee, FL · pop 2,375 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
12081000314 is a census tract in the Casa Loma area of Bayshore Gardens, FL. It scores 5.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,375. At $738 a month, rents run 51% under what the rest of Bayshore Gardens commands.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units1,473
Renter share27.9%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate21.2%
Median income$32,098
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
94
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region
Centroid at 27.4357, -82.5693 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casa Loma scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
21.2% poverty · this tract
5.3
Supply constraint
$738 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
8.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.8
How Casa Loma compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 87%Socioeconomic
- 75%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma
The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1/10. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.3/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.6/10. Against Manatee County at 53.5%, 62% of renters here are cost-burdened. Severe burden reaches 17%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Against the Manatee County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points. Adults with no health insurance runs 23.4% against 11.3% nationally.
The poverty rate is 21%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the national scale it lands near the 72nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.3/10. Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 12081000314
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000314?
Census tract 12081000314 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12081000314?
Median gross rent is $738/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000314?
21.2% of residents in tract 12081000314 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,375.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000314?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 75th, minority 49th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 12081000314 considered part of Casa Loma?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000314 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 12081000314 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?
Tract 12081000314 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bayshore Gardens
Top eight tracts in Bayshore Gardens ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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