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Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally

Palma Sola Bay Club Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bradenton

Tract 12081000409 · Manatee, FL · pop 2,421 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Tract 12081000409 sits in the Palma Sola Bay Club area of Bradenton, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.9/10. It is home to 2,421 residents. 39% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 10% Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units1,155
Renter share30.8%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate13.0%
Median income$72,845

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 6 tracts In Palma Sola Bay Club
High
Within parent city
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 22 tracts In Bradenton
Elevated
Within county
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#27 of 93 tracts In Manatee
Elevated
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#1,143 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bradenton and the region

Centroid at 27.4674, -82.6307 · click any tract to drill in

Why Palma Sola Bay Club scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bradenton
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
13.0% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$2,081 rent vs county FMR
6.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bradenton
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bradenton
8.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bradenton
7.5

How Palma Sola Bay Club compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Palma Sola Bay Club risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.9This tracttract 0004094.4Bradentonparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 30

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Palma Sola Bay Club. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Palma Sola Bay Club

Against Manatee County at 53.5%, around two-thirds of renters here are cost-burdened. The main counterweight is state political climate at 1.5/10. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $72,845, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.4/10. At $2,081 a month, rents run 29% over what the rest of Bradenton commands.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.4/10. It sits 0.8 points above the Manatee County average of 4.1.

The voucher gap is 12.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 3.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 0.8 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 12081000409

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000409?

Census tract 12081000409 in the Palma Sola Bay Club neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12081000409?

Median gross rent is $2,081/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000409?

13.0% of residents in tract 12081000409 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,421.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000409?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 66th, minority 35th, housing 15th.
Q5

Is tract 12081000409 considered part of Palma Sola Bay Club?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000409 fall within Palma Sola Bay Club (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How does tract 12081000409 compare to Bradenton overall?

Tract 12081000409 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Bradenton at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bradenton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bradenton

Top eight tracts in Bradenton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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