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Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

Palma Sola Bay Club Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bradenton

Tract 12081000407 · Manatee, FL · pop 4,531 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Tract 12081000407 sits in the Palma Sola Bay Club area of Bradenton, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.3/10. It is home to 4,531 residents. 44% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12% Stable renters 5% Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units2,074
Renter share16.2%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$65,302

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 6 tracts In Palma Sola Bay Club
Moderate
Within parent city
29 th percentile
Rank, 29th percentileLowHigh
#16 of 22 tracts In Bradenton
Low
Within county
62 th percentile
Rank, 62nd percentileLowHigh
#36 of 93 tracts In Manatee
Elevated
Within state
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#1,882 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bradenton and the region

Centroid at 27.4873, -82.6283 · click any tract to drill in

Why Palma Sola Bay Club scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bradenton
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$2,636 rent vs county FMR
9.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bradenton
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bradenton
8.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bradenton
7.5

How Palma Sola Bay Club compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Palma Sola Bay Club risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.3This tracttract 0004074.4Bradentonparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 46

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 8Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 0.80%Avg annual filing rate
  • 1.0%Peak (2016)
  • 4Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2016
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 12081000407
Filings climbed 100% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Palma Sola Bay Club. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Palma Sola Bay Club

Cost burden runs 72% here against 53.5% across Manatee County. Average gross rent is $2,636, 63% above the Bradenton average. The voucher gap is 42.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Annualized rent equals 48% of average household income of $65,302, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The dominant input is supply constraint at 9.3/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.4/10.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Court records carry 8 eviction filings across 3 observed years. The worst year on record was 2016, when 1.0% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 0.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 47% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 16% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.1/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 12081000407

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000407?

Census tract 12081000407 in the Palma Sola Bay Club neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12081000407?

Median gross rent is $2,636/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000407?

5.5% of residents in tract 12081000407 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,531.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000407?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 49th, minority 14th, housing 80th.
Q5

Is tract 12081000407 considered part of Palma Sola Bay Club?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000407 fall within Palma Sola Bay Club (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12081000407?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 8 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 12081000407 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.80% of renter households, peaking at 1.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 12081000407 compare to Bradenton overall?

Tract 12081000407 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Bradenton at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bradenton; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bradenton

Top eight tracts in Bradenton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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