Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
Lost Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Casselberry
Tract 12117022209 · Seminole, FL · pop 3,894 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
12117022209 is a census tract in the Lost Creek area of Goldenrod, FL. It scores 5.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,894 residents. Severe burden reaches 41%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units1,575
Renter share17.1%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate14.5%
Median income$85,046
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Casselberry and the region
Centroid at 28.6176, -81.2920 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lost Creek scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Casselberry
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
14.5% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,924 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Casselberry
9.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Casselberry
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Casselberry
8.1
How Lost Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 47
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 54%Household composition
- 52%Racial/ethnic minority
- 22%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lost Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lost Creek
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.3/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.1/10. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.4/10.
Against the Seminole County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. Average gross rent is $1,924, 11% above the Goldenrod average. That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 17% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.2/10.
Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. 54% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12117022209
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12117022209?
Census tract 12117022209 in the Lost Creek neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12117022209?
Median gross rent is $1,924/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12117022209?
14.5% of residents in tract 12117022209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,894.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12117022209?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 54th, minority 52th, housing 22th.
Q5
Is tract 12117022209 considered part of Lost Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12117022209 fall within Lost Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 12117022209 compare to Casselberry overall?
Tract 12117022209 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Casselberry at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Casselberry; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Casselberry
Top eight tracts in Casselberry ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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