The Willows Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 32%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. The main counterweight is eviction-process difficulty, at 2/10.

Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.2/10. The poverty rate is 21%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Filings are well documented here: 3,894 across 3 observed tracts.

On the high side is tenant-organizing strength at 7.4/10. The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 25.9% of renter households.

At $1,410 a month, rents sit 9% under what the rest of Pine Hills commands. The most recent observed rate, 8.4% in 2016, is well off that peak. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

The 3 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.4 points apart at the extremes. 56% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

With little internal variation, 5.7/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.