Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Bay Breeze Cove Eviction Risk: Lower , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103024100 · Pinellas, FL · pop 5,345 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 12103024100 sits in the Bay Breeze Cove area of St. Petersburg, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. Population here is 5,345. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units2,530
Renter share39.4%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$70,641
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
36
th percentile
Low
Within county
10
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
28
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.8144, -82.6417 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bay Breeze Cove scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$1,383 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.0
How Bay Breeze Cove compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 32%Socioeconomic
- 38%Household composition
- 48%Racial/ethnic minority
- 62%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 1%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 44%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 640Total filings over 18 yrs
- 4.20%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.6%Peak (2004)
- 45Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 50% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 81Total filings 2020-21
- 1.1Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.43×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bay Breeze Cove
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.1/10. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
At $1,383 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of St. Petersburg commands. The filing record is not thin: 640 evictions over 18 years of observation. It sits 0.8 points below the Pinellas County average of 3.8.
Filings peaked in 2004 at 9.6% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 4.2% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 4.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103024100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103024100?
Census tract 12103024100 in the Bay Breeze Cove neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103024100?
Median gross rent is $1,383/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103024100?
4.6% of residents in tract 12103024100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,345.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103024100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 38th, minority 48th, housing 62th.
Q5
Is tract 12103024100 considered part of Bay Breeze Cove?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103024100 fall within Bay Breeze Cove (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103024100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 640 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103024100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.20% of renter households, peaking at 9.6% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103024100 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.43× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103024100 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103024100 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103024100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 44% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Bartlett Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riviera Bay
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Thirteenth Street Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12103020206
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bridgewater Place
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Palmetto Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Holiday Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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