Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Ponce de Leon Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103022902 · Pinellas, FL · pop 2,787 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
12103022902 is a census tract in the Ponce de Leon area of St. Petersburg, FL. It scores 4.3/10 for landlords. The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 12%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units1,194
Renter share19.7%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate13.9%
Median income$51,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
79
th percentile
High
Within county
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
63
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7978, -82.6737 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ponce de Leon scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
13.9% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,279 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.0
How Ponce de Leon compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 78%Socioeconomic
- 75%Household composition
- 64%Racial/ethnic minority
- 74%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 10%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 371Total filings over 18 yrs
- 6.60%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.6%Peak (2013)
- 31Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 94% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 215Total filings 2020-21
- 3.0Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.31×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ponce de Leon. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ponce de Leon
The main counterweight is state political climate at 1.5/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.5/10.
Against Pinellas County at 53.4%, 62% of renters here are cost-burdened. At $1,279 a month, rents run 23% under what the rest of St. Petersburg commands.
The filing record is not thin: 371 evictions over 18 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2013 at 11.6% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 6.6% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #44,239 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 20% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Pinellas County average of 3.8 closely. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $51,000.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103022902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103022902?
Census tract 12103022902 in the Ponce de Leon neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103022902?
Median gross rent is $1,279/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103022902?
13.9% of residents in tract 12103022902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,787.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103022902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 75th, minority 64th, housing 74th.
Q5
Is tract 12103022902 considered part of Ponce de Leon?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103022902 fall within Ponce de Leon (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103022902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 371 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103022902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.60% of renter households, peaking at 11.6% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103022902 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.31× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103022902 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103022902 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103022902 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 10% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riviera Bay
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Thirteenth Street Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12103020206
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bridgewater Place
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Palmetto Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bartlett Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Edge District
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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