The Bush Eviction Risk: High , Chicago

SNAP participation runs 64.5% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 60.8% against 17.8% nationally.

The severe-burden share is 33%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The poverty rate is 40%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Average gross rent is $912, 37% below the Chicago average.

85% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10.

Against the Cook County average of 6.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.0 points. Set annual rent against average income of $33,048 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Cost burden runs about half here against 45.6% across Cook County.

This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Chicago. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 91st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.8/10.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.