East St. Louis Eviction Risk: Moderate

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. SNAP participation runs 53.5% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 43%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 26.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Average gross rent is $1,102, 30% above the East St. Louis average. Set annual rent against average income of $40,100 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

15% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Against the St. Clair County average of 4.5, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 16% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.