Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally
Harlem Eviction Risk: Moderate , Machesney Park
Tract 17201003809 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 4,378 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Tract 17201003809, home to 4,378 residents in the Harlem neighborhood of Machesney Park, scores 5.3/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 50% of US census tracts.
34% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 20% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,049 a month against an average household income of $51,153 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 54% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19%
Stable renters 36%
Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units2,221
Renter share54.5%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate13.9%
Median income$51,153
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
60
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
53
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
63
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Machesney Park and the region
Centroid at 42.3277, -89.0168 · click any tract to drill in
Why Harlem scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
13.9% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,049 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Machesney Park
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.8
How Harlem compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 88
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 83%Socioeconomic
- 82%Household composition
- 42%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Harlem. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.7%Housing insecurity
- 9.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.7%Food insecurity
- 19.7%SNAP enrollment
- 9.9%Transit barriers
- 10.7%No health insurance
- 18.9%Frequent mental distress
- 35.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Harlem
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 7.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Machesney Park, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Winnebago County average of 5.0 and in line with the Illinois statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 88th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
In CDC survey modeling, about 14.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 17201003809
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201003809?
Census tract 17201003809 in the Harlem neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17201003809?
Median gross rent is $1,049/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17201003809?
13.9% of residents in tract 17201003809 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,378.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17201003809?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 82th, minority 42th, housing 92th.
Q5
Is tract 17201003809 considered part of Harlem?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201003809 fall within Harlem (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 17201003809 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 17201003809 compare to Machesney Park overall?
Tract 17201003809 scores 4.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Machesney Park at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Machesney Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Machesney Park
Top eight tracts in Machesney Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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