Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Harlem Eviction Risk: Lower , Machesney Park
Tract 17201003808 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 3,852 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
With a score of 3.1/10, tract 17201003808 in the Harlem area of Machesney Park, IL reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Cost burden runs roughly one in four here against 44.4% across Winnebago County.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 84%
Tract context
Occupied units1,441
Renter share15.7%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate9.3%
Median income$88,173
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
14
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Machesney Park and the region
Centroid at 42.3483, -89.0227 · click any tract to drill in
Why Harlem scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
9.3% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,103 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.5
How Harlem compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 28
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 13%Household composition
- 18%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Harlem. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.3%Housing insecurity
- 7.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.2%Food insecurity
- 14.1%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 8.9%No health insurance
- 18.3%Frequent mental distress
- 32.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Harlem
The clearest offset is economic stress at 2.3/10. Severe burden reaches 15%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Against the Winnebago County average of 4.3, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points. That is riskier than roughly 22% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 16% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Rent consumes only 15% of average household income of $88,173, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Statewide the IL average is 5.1, so this tract runs 2.0 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,103, close to the Machesney Park average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 17201003808
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201003808?
Census tract 17201003808 in the Harlem neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17201003808?
Median gross rent is $1,103/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17201003808?
9.3% of residents in tract 17201003808 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,852.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17201003808?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 13th, minority 18th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 17201003808 considered part of Harlem?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201003808 fall within Harlem (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 17201003808 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 17201003808 compare to Machesney Park overall?
Tract 17201003808 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Machesney Park at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Machesney Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Machesney Park
Top eight tracts in Machesney Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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