Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #56,660 of 84,120 nationally
Harlem Eviction Risk: Lower , Machesney Park
Tract 17201003808 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 3,852 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Census tract 17201003808 runs through the Harlem neighborhood of Machesney Park. With 3,852 residents, it scores 4.7/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 29% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 24% of renter households, a moderate level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,103 a month while the average household earns $88,173 a year, roughly 15% of income at the averages. Renters make up 16% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 84%
Tract context
Occupied units1,441
Renter share15.7%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate9.3%
Median income$88,173
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
20
th percentile
Low
Within state
38
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Machesney Park and the region
Centroid at 42.3483, -89.0227 · click any tract to drill in
Why Harlem scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
9.3% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,103 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.5
How Harlem compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 28
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 13%Household composition
- 18%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Harlem. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.3%Housing insecurity
- 7.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.2%Food insecurity
- 14.1%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 8.9%No health insurance
- 18.3%Frequent mental distress
- 32.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Harlem
What moves this score most is housing court bias at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Machesney Park, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Winnebago County average of 5.0 and below the Illinois statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 28th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 17201003808
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201003808?
Census tract 17201003808 in the Harlem neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17201003808?
Median gross rent is $1,103/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17201003808?
9.3% of residents in tract 17201003808 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,852.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17201003808?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 13th, minority 18th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 17201003808 considered part of Harlem?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201003808 fall within Harlem (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 17201003808 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 17201003808 compare to Machesney Park overall?
Tract 17201003808 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Machesney Park at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Machesney Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Machesney Park
Top eight tracts in Machesney Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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