Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Harlem Eviction Risk: Lower , Machesney Park
Tract 17201000105 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 3,930 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
With a score of 3.8/10, tract 17201000105 in the Harlem area of Machesney Park, IL reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,930. Cost burden runs roughly one in three here against 44.4% across Winnebago County.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,484
Renter share14.1%
SVI overall0.46
Poverty rate13.5%
Median income$76,875
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
39
th percentile
Low
Within state
30
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Machesney Park and the region
Centroid at 42.3504, -89.0383 · click any tract to drill in
Why Harlem scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
13.5% poverty · this tract
3.4
Supply constraint
$891 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.5
How Harlem compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 46
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 48%Socioeconomic
- 90%Household composition
- 33%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 4%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Harlem. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.9%Housing insecurity
- 8.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.8%Food insecurity
- 15.0%SNAP enrollment
- 8.3%Transit barriers
- 9.3%No health insurance
- 18.6%Frequent mental distress
- 32.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Harlem
The main counterweight is supply constraint at 2.5/10. Average gross rent is $891, 19% below the Machesney Park average.
11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rockford. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 38% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Against average income of $76,875, annual rent is just 14%. Statewide the IL average is 5.1, so this tract runs 1.3 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Winnebago County average of 4.3 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 17201000105
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201000105?
Census tract 17201000105 in the Harlem neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17201000105?
Median gross rent is $891/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17201000105?
13.5% of residents in tract 17201000105 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,930.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17201000105?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 46th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 90th, minority 33th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 17201000105 considered part of Harlem?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201000105 fall within Harlem (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 17201000105 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 17201000105 compare to Machesney Park overall?
Tract 17201000105 scores 3.8/10, lower than the parent city of Machesney Park at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Machesney Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 17201000105 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 4% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Machesney Park
Top eight tracts in Machesney Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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