Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,808 of 84,120 nationally
Harlem Eviction Risk: Moderate , Machesney Park
Tract 17201000104 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 2,702 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
Tract 17201000104 sits in the Harlem area of Machesney Park, IL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.5/10. It is home to 2,702 residents. The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units1,054
Renter share44.9%
SVI overall0.54
Poverty rate26.2%
Median income$50,543
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
64
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Machesney Park and the region
Centroid at 42.3277, -89.0401 · click any tract to drill in
Why Harlem scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
26.2% poverty · this tract
6.5
Supply constraint
$1,115 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Machesney Park
4.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Machesney Park
5.5
How Harlem compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 54
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 85%Socioeconomic
- 71%Household composition
- 25%Racial/ethnic minority
- 10%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Harlem. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.1%Housing insecurity
- 11.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.3%Food insecurity
- 25.4%SNAP enrollment
- 11.7%Transit barriers
- 11.3%No health insurance
- 21.1%Frequent mental distress
- 37.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Harlem
Against the Winnebago County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. SNAP participation runs 25.4% against 15.2% nationally.
The severe-burden share is 8%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 72% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.9/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
44% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. Average gross rent is $1,115, close to the Machesney Park average.
Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $50,543. 45% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 17201000104
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201000104?
Census tract 17201000104 in the Harlem neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17201000104?
Median gross rent is $1,115/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17201000104?
26.2% of residents in tract 17201000104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,702.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17201000104?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 54th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 71th, minority 25th, housing 10th.
Q5
Is tract 17201000104 considered part of Harlem?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201000104 fall within Harlem (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 17201000104 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 17201000104 compare to Machesney Park overall?
Tract 17201000104 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Machesney Park at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Machesney Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 17201000104 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Machesney Park
Top eight tracts in Machesney Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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