Louisville Eviction Risk: Moderate

The poverty rate is 58%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.2/10.

The severe-burden share is 26%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Set annual rent against average income of $24,574 and the ratio lands at 37%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10.

72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Against Jefferson County at 42.9%, 52% of renters here are cost-burdened. At $764 a month, rents run 24% under what the rest of Louisville commands.

Against the Jefferson County average of 4.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points. The filing record is not thin: 1,004 evictions over 14 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2012, when 21.5% of renter households were served.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 13.1% of renter households face a filing.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.