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Census Tract · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Louisville Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 21111000202 · Jefferson County, KY · pop 982

21111000202 is a census tract in Louisville, KY. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. 35% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 19% Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units343
Renter share37.9%
SVI overall0.72
Poverty rate39.7%
Median income$22,868

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
81 th percentile
Rank, 81st percentileLowHigh
#18 of 90 tracts In Louisville
High
Within county
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#48 of 216 tracts In Jefferson County
High
Within state
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#27 of 1,306 tracts In Kentucky
Very High
National
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#24,859 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Louisville and the region

Centroid at 38.2759, -85.7795 · click any tract to drill in

Why Louisville scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Louisville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.0
State political climate
Kentucky legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
39.7% poverty · this tract
9.9
Supply constraint
$952 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Louisville
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Louisville
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Louisville
5.0

How Louisville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Louisville risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.4This tracttract 0002024.0Louisvilleparent city4.0Countyavg tract in county3.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 72

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Louisville

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 9.9/10. Annualized rent equals 50% of average household income of $22,868, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 40%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 9.2/10.

Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Against the Jefferson County average of 4.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points. Against Jefferson County at 42.9%, 49% of renters here are cost-burdened.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.5/10.

Statewide the KY average is 3.9, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 21111000202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 21111000202?

Census tract 21111000202 in Louisville scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 21111000202?

Median gross rent is $952/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 21111000202?

39.7% of residents in tract 21111000202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 982.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 21111000202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 70th, minority 23th, housing 68th.
Q5

How does tract 21111000202 compare to Louisville overall?

Tract 21111000202 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Louisville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Louisville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q6

Was tract 21111000202 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 20% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Louisville

Top eight tracts in Louisville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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