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Census Tract · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Louisville Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 21111007102 · Jefferson County, KY · pop 4,467

With a score of 5.4/10, tract 21111007102 in Louisville, KY reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,467 residents. 35% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 31% Stable renters 24% Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units2,256
Renter share55.2%
SVI overall0.36
Poverty rate20.1%
Median income$44,206

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
54 th percentile
Rank, 54th percentileLowHigh
#42 of 90 tracts In Louisville
Moderate
Within county
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#18 of 216 tracts In Jefferson County
Very High
Within state
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#27 of 1,306 tracts In Kentucky
Very High
National
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#24,859 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Louisville and the region

Centroid at 38.2163, -85.7467 · click any tract to drill in

Why Louisville scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Louisville
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.0
State political climate
Kentucky legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
20.1% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,143 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Louisville
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Louisville
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Louisville
5.0

How Louisville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Louisville risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.4This tracttract 0071024.0Louisvilleparent city4.0Countyavg tract in county3.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 36

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Louisville

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.2/10. Cost burden runs 56% here against 42.9% across Jefferson County.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. It sits 1.4 points above the Jefferson County average of 4.0. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.1/10.

The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Average gross rent is $1,143, 13% above the Louisville average. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the KY average is 3.9, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $44,206. 55% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 21111007102

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 21111007102?

Census tract 21111007102 in Louisville scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 21111007102?

Median gross rent is $1,143/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 21111007102?

20.1% of residents in tract 21111007102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,467.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 21111007102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 36th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 49th, household 4th, minority 46th, housing 61th.
Q5

How does tract 21111007102 compare to Louisville overall?

Tract 21111007102 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Louisville at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Louisville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q6

Was tract 21111007102 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 25% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Louisville

Top eight tracts in Louisville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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