Penrose/Fayette Street Outreach Eviction Risk: High

Set annual rent against average household income of $26,836 and the ratio lands at 54%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Against a Baltimore baseline of 32.0%, 85% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. 34.9% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 46%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Food insecurity affects 57.1% of adults, 39.3 points above the national rate. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.2/10. Average gross rent is $1,214, 9% below the Baltimore average of $1,331.

That places it #1 of 157 neighborhoods in Baltimore. For a like-for-like read, Easterwood and Darley Park score within a fraction of it.

Social vulnerability runs high at 8.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. 58% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 8/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.