Hartland Village Eviction Risk: Elevated

Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. This is a renter market: 90% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 30.4% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 8.4/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. 20.7% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Running cool is supply constraint, at 1.6/10. The poverty rate is 17%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

On the high side is rent-regulation exposure at 7.4/10. That places it #1 of 11 neighborhoods in Essex.

Social vulnerability runs high at 8.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Average gross rent runs $1,297, close to the Essex average.

One tract means one number: 7.7/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.