Sumner Eviction Risk: Moderate

What pushes the score up most is supply constraint at 10/10. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.

Severe burden reaches 36%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Average gross rent is $3,501, 42% above the Bethesda average of $2,469. On the softer side is economic stress, at 1/10.

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 4.2% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. 2.5% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, below a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Running hot is tenant-organizing strength at 7.4/10.

That places it #11 of 17 neighborhoods in Bethesda. Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

The closest comparables inside the same city are Maplewood and Woodhaven. Against average income of $210,917, annual rent is only 20%, a wide affordability cushion.

Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually reflect a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

One tract means one number: 5.4/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.