Barry's Corner Eviction Risk: High , Boston

At $3,501 a month, rents run 63% over what the rest of Boston commands. Annualized rent equals 47% of average household income of $89,479, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 93% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

The dominant input is local political climate at 8.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10.

The voucher gap is 23.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Disability prevalence runs 18.5% against 31.5% nationally.

The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Boston. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

On the national scale it lands near the 93rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.4/10.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.