Grove Hall Eviction Risk: High , Boston

SNAP participation runs 48.7% against 15.2% nationally. The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 9.3/10. At $1,350 a month, rents run 37% under what the rest of Boston commands. The poverty rate is 37%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $44,963, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. This is renter territory: 71% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 24.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. It sits 1.6 points above the Suffolk County average of 7.9.

The filing record is not thin: 285 evictions over 5 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2012 at 8.1% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Boston. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.