Church Green Eviction Risk: High

Scores across the 6 constituent tracts range from 6.7 to 9.5. A 2.8-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10.

Severe burden reaches 23%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Average gross rent is $2,768, 29% above the Boston average of $2,147. 70% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over.

Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 8/10. On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 8/10. The poverty rate is 22%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Court records for this tract carry 85 eviction filings. 4.2% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.

The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 2.3% of renter households. That places it #18 of 57 neighborhoods in Boston.

Judgments average 0.5% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.8 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.